Farm-to-table unit economics, honestly

The USDA's Economic Research Service reported that farmers received 11.8 cents of each 2024 food dollar. The rest went to processing, transport, wholesale, retail — the long chain between the field and the fork. Farm-to-table's entire pitch is shortening that chain. But shortening the chain doesn't automatically make the math work. Here's the math, without the romance.

The three numbers that decide everything

1. The harvest value per week. A small diversified farm might bring $2,000–5,000 of retail-value produce to a weekly distribution. That's the gross pool everything else draws from. Below ~$1,500/week, the logistics overhead eats the model — be honest about the threshold.

2. The claim rate. In a claim-before-harvest model, members commit before the food is picked. A healthy program claims 70–85% of the posted harvest. Below 60%, the farm is harvesting to hope again — the exact problem the model was supposed to solve. Claim rate is the vital sign; watch it weekly.

3. The delivery cost per member. This is where farm-to-table programs quietly die. Delivery is real work — packing, driving, handoff — and programs that bury it in the produce price train members to expect free logistics. The honest model prices delivery as its own line item: members see the food cost and the trip cost separately.

Pricing: three honest methods

• Cost-plus: seed, labor, water, amortized equipment, plus margin. The only method that guarantees the farm survives. Requires the farm to actually know its costs — many don't, and that's the first consulting engagement.
• Comparable: USDA AMS market references and retail ads for the same items. Keeps the box competitive with the farmers market. Use as a ceiling check, not a pricing strategy.
• Seasonal: abundance pricing when the zucchini won't stop, premium when it's the first tomato. Honest and traditional — but it needs member education, or the price swings feel arbitrary.

The disciplined programs use cost-plus as the floor, comparable as the ceiling, and seasonal as the adjustment. Deterministic aids beat vibes.

The delivery trap, in numbers

Say 40 members, $30 average box, weekly. That's $1,200/week gross. Delivery: one driver, 4 hours, $25/hour loaded = $100, plus vehicle. That's $2.50–3.50 per member per week — 8–12% of the box. Buried in the price, members compare your $30 box to a $24 grocery run and you lose. Shown as a line item, members compare $27 of produce to the grocery store and $3 to the cost of driving there themselves — and you win.

Transparency isn't just ethics. It's positioning.

The make-good economy

Quality issues will happen — a bad week, a missed item, a box left in the sun. Programs that handle this with a formal make-good flow (replace, refund, or credit, member's choice) retain members through bad weeks. Programs that argue lose them. The cost of one make-good box is trivial against the lifetime value of a weekly member. Budget 2–3% of gross for it and stop resenting it.

What kills programs in year one

Not competition — logistics optimism. The farm underestimates packing time, delivery takes twice as long as mapped, claim rates sag in month three when novelty wears off. The programs that survive do three things: claim-before-harvest (never harvest to hope), delivery as a line item (never subsidized invisibly), and a weekly claim-rate review (the vital sign, every Monday).

The 11.8¢ figure is the mission. The unit economics are the mechanism. Romance gets you to launch; arithmetic gets you to year two.